In an unexpected turn of events, the initial tropical threat of the season in the U.S. is originating from an unlikely source: Southern California, rather than the East Coast or the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Hilary, which originated along Mexico’s western coast, has raised concerns about bringing intense rainfall to the Southern California region in the coming days. While it remains uncertain if the storm will make landfall, the potential impacts are being closely monitored.
Tropical Storm Hilary is projected to gain strength over the next few days due to favorable conditions. The National Hurricane Center has forecasted its peak intensity as a Category 3 hurricane with winds of up to 120 mph by Saturday morning. However, the storm is anticipated to weaken as it approaches cooler ocean temperatures and potential land interaction with Mexico’s Baja Peninsula, located south of California. Heavy rainfall is anticipated to hit Southern California and parts of southwest Arizona by Sunday.
It is worth noting that California has rarely experienced direct hits from hurricanes. Only three tropical storms have made landfall in the state’s history: Nora in 1997, Kathleen in 1976, and the Long Beach storm in 1939. Nonetheless, remnants of tropical storms and hurricanes have led to instances of tropical rain reaching Southern California and the Southwest. In recent memory, Hurricane Kay in 2022 tragically resulted in a fatality due to a debris flow in San Bernardino County.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Hilary is predicted to transform into an extratropical storm by Monday morning near the California-Mexico border, accompanied by maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. While some wind damage could occur, it appears to be a relatively minor concern compared to the potential for heavy rainfall. The region is already under a slight risk of flash flooding for early next week, with a possibility of upgrading to a moderate or high risk if the current forecast trajectory holds.
The Weather Prediction Center has outlined expected rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated areas possibly receiving over 6 inches. This amount of rainfall is particularly significant for the typically arid Southwest. The potential for such substantial precipitation within a short timeframe has raised concerns about the risk of flash flooding and other related hazards.
As Tropical Storm Hilary continues to evolve and approach the Southern California region, local authorities and residents are urged to stay vigilant and monitor weather updates. Preparations and precautions are advised to minimize the potential impact of heavy rain and the associated risks.